In an interview with the International Energy Agency (IEA), recent findings reveal a significant surge in air conditioning usage across the globe, forecasting it as one of the most unpredictable impacts on the world’s power grids in the next decade. The IEA predicts that all fossil fuel demands, including oil, will peak before 2030.
The IEA highlights that rising incomes in developing countries, coupled with increased temperatures resulting from climate change, will lead to household electricity consumption from air conditioning units exceeding the total electricity usage of the entire Middle East region.
On October 16, the IEA released its Global Energy Outlook report, revising its prediction for global electricity demand upward. They estimate that by 2035, global electricity consumption will surpass last year’s estimates by 6%.
According to the IEA, air conditioning units alone will require an additional 697 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity before 2030, more than three times the additional electricity needed by data centers. Electric vehicles will demand an extra 854 TWh.
When it comes to daily power grid load impacts, the unpredictability of air conditioning usage stands out. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized, “This is a blind spot for many decision-makers who have not grasped the significance of air conditioning as a major driver of global electricity consumption.”
Birol noted that in countries like the United States and Japan, around 90% of households have air conditioning, while in Nigeria the figure is just 5%, in Indonesia it’s 15%, and in India it’s currently below 20%.
The IEA warns that unless substantial adjustments are made before 2050, energy consumption from residential air conditioning could increase by 280%. Even with governments dedicated to achieving climate goals, the energy used by air conditioning units could still rise by nearly 200%, with the most significant increases expected in developing nations.
While data centers are often labeled as “energy hogs,” the IEA points out that their concentrated nature means their local impact is substantial, but when viewed globally, their overall contribution to increased electricity demand by 2030 is relatively small.
