French President Emmanuel Macron recently convened a conference in Paris aimed at addressing the deepening humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, exacerbated by ongoing Israeli bombings. Macron’s primary goal is to raise about £300 million in aid while also seeking solutions to the security vacuum left by the Lebanese state’s longstanding vulnerabilities.
In discussing the conference, many analysts believe Macron may find success in securing financial commitments, particularly from Gulf states with Sunni majorities. These donations are seen as a chance to rekindle interest in Lebanon, a country that has suffered neglect from these states, creating an opportunity for Hezbollah’s influence to grow unchecked in recent years.
However, the conference carries a more daunting challenge: negotiating a ceasefire. The prospect of halting hostilities appears slim, especially given the U.S. government’s apparent alignment with Israel’s military strategy aimed at diminishing Hezbollah’s power.
During discussions, proposals are expected to surface regarding reinforcement of the Lebanese armed forces and a renewed mandate for the UN peacekeeping mission, Unifil. Notably absent from the Paris meeting was U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, highlighting an ongoing rift between Paris and Washington regarding their respective approaches to the Israel-Lebanon crisis. While Blinken conducts meetings with Arab leaders in Qatar, the UK is represented by Middle East Minister Hamish Falconer, as Foreign Secretary David Lammy attends the Commonwealth summit in Samoa.
Hezbollah remains firm, stating that it will not discuss its future political or military plans until a ceasefire is officially established. Israel has made it clear that its operations will persist, aiming to decimate Hezbollah footholds both in Beirut and the region south of the Litani River.
While France hasn’t specificed its fundraising target, the UN has indicated that over $400 million is required for humanitarian efforts. Ahead of the conference, Germany announced an increase of $62 million in aid, and a coalition of 150 NGOs underscored the immediate need for a ceasefire, emphasizing the urgency given that over 2,500 people in Lebanon have lost their lives and nearly 12,000 have been injured since hostilities escalated a year ago.
The effectiveness of France’s push for a ceasefire hinges on Hezbollah’s willingness to commit to halting its actions, independent of ongoing conflicts in Gaza. Conflicting statements from Hezbollah cast uncertainty on its intentions, yet there’s hope that U.S. pressure on Israel could create an opening for a ceasefire agreement, which might pave the way to resolve the two-year stalemate in the Lebanese parliament caused by ethnic divisions.
Moreover, France aims to establish a consensus at the conference for bolstering, expanding, and training the Lebanese armed forces. Israel argues that UN resolution 1701, enacted in 2006, has not been fully realized, particularly due to Unifil’s failure to enforce calls for Hezbollah’s withdrawal north of the Litani River. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein recently suggested a more robust “1701+” mandate to address these shortcomings.
Italy, a significant contributor to Unifil, has proposed establishing a peacekeeping buffer zone with strengthened forces and revised rules of engagement between the Israeli border and the Litani. Additionally, Italy supports the training of the Lebanese army as part of these efforts. However, Israel is insisting on its right to access Lebanese airspace, a demand that is unlikely to gain acceptance from any Lebanese government.
