On October 18, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on the national economic performance for the first three quarters of 2024. The GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, and there were positive changes in key economic indicators in September. How should we interpret these figures, and what steps should be taken in the fourth quarter? Additionally, with the recent introduction of a package of incremental policies, how can we ensure effective implementation?
To dive deeper into these questions, we connected with ZHU Min, a senior expert from the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former Vice President of the International Monetary Fund.
**Interviewer:** What are your thoughts on the 4.8% year-on-year GDP growth for the first three quarters?
**ZHU Min:** Achieving a 4.8% growth rate in the current global context is quite impressive. When we look at the broader picture, global economic growth has been slowing down. It decreased from 3.5% in 2022 to around 3.1% this year. This sluggish global growth significantly impacts our economy.
Moreover, we’re witnessing a rise in trade fragmentation due to anti-globalization trends, causing a consistent decline in trade growth since 2017. The proportion of trade to GDP has been hovering around 60%, which is quite concerning for a large, export-driven economy like China. Thus, our 4.8% growth reflects both the changing global environment and the inherent volatility as we recover economically.
We’re also observing structural changes in China’s economy. The industrial sector shows some promising signs, consumer spending has room for growth, and stabilizing the real estate market is crucial. So, that 4.8% figure really represents a difficult achievement.
**Interviewer:** The data shows a 5.3% year-on-year increase in imports and exports. How do you view these foreign trade figures?
**ZHU Min:** The past nine months have been challenging for foreign trade. While we saw a 6.2% increase in exports, attaining that growth was no small feat, especially considering the pressure from Western nations.
Take the electric vehicle sector, for instance. Both Europe and the U.S. are discussing tariffs, and we’re adapting our trade policies in response. As global trade becomes more fragmented, we’ve noticed a shift towards trade with the Global South, with trade with regions like Africa and Southeast Asia seeing significant growth—over 6% in the case of the “Belt and Road” initiative. This change is crucial for maintaining our trade momentum.
It’s also worth noting the robust growth from private enterprises in trade, which is a strong indicator of resilience.
**Interviewer:** To reach the annual 5% growth target, what specific growth rate is needed in the fourth quarter, and what pressures do you foresee?
**ZHU Min:** Indeed, the pressure for the fourth quarter is considerable. To meet the target, we would need to achieve a growth rate of approximately 5.5%, which poses a significant challenge. That said, if we confront the difficulties head-on and maintain confidence, achieving this goal is still feasible.
Key actions will be vital:
1. **Stabilizing Real Estate:** The real estate sector has seen investments drop by 10.1%, new home sales decline by 17.1%, and prices continue to fall. It’s essential to implement measures to stop this decline, as it greatly influences our overall economy. Policies encouraging home purchases and addressing inventory issues are critical here.
2. **Boosting Consumer Spending:** We need policies that not only enhance residents’ income but also promote more high-quality service consumption. A boost in consumer spending is crucial for a strong economic performance in the fourth quarter.
**Interviewer:** Moving forward, how can we effectively stabilize the economy?
**ZHU Min:** We need to focus on two main areas: firstly, helping to increase residents’ income to enhance their spending power, and secondly, supporting businesses in overcoming challenges. Creating a unified market, ensuring a compliant business environment, and reducing transaction costs are essential for energizing both enterprises and consumers, ultimately revitalizing our economy.
